Alejandro Garnacho: Why Chelsea signed Man United's under-fire winger.

When Antony’s trivela curved around a dishevelled Chelsea backline and fell in that corridor of uncertainty just outside of Djorde Petrovic’s reach, Alejandro Garnacho, as he is often is, was at the right place. After sparking United’s comeback from 2-0 down by pouncing on Moises Caicedo’s poor pass, he steamed ahead of Malo Gusto at the back post and headed it past the Serbian goalkeeper to make it 3-2. Chelsea’s announcement video had him sitting on the same advertisement hoarding he celebrated his goal on that day. The Madrid-born Argentinian would have found it hard to imagine that Cole Palmer would score twice in injury time to help the Blues win 4-3, he would have found in plain impossible that he’d trade Manchester red for Chelsea blue in two years.

Manchester United are almost entirely to blame for that. Ruben Amorim’s system saw them jettison Rashford, Sancho, Antony (who have all done much better elsewhere) and put Amad at wingback. The dream of being the next wingless wonders have instead made many wonder how they’ll wing it next. Garnacho was another casualty of this, although he did fare quite decently even when asked to play out of position as a left or right sided AM in the 3-4-2-1.

Garnacho is a curious winger. He played some part of his youth career as a centerforward for the Atletico Madrid U14s, even top scoring in a La Liga youth tournament in 2016. His key metrics skew more towards that of a striker than a winger – he has averaged ~3.5 shots per 90 in his two seasons at a dreadful United. The success of his take ons sat at an equally dreadful 29.2%. To contextualize that, of the 40 players to attempt the most dribbles in the PL last season, there was only player with a success rate at less than 30%. That was Garnacho.

That’s not to say he’s ineffectual with the ball. His top speed of 35.48 km/hr made him the 10^th fastest in the PL last season, and his ability to progress the ball on United’s many chaotic breaks saw him stay around the 92^nd percentile in Europe’s Top 5 leagues for progressive carries in the last two seasons. He was also in the 93^rd percentile for carries into the box. Yes, it can be argued that United’s system offers a favourable boost to those numbers with the 10^th best field tilt in the league (Chelsea were 3^rd), but at the price he was available at, this is a gamble worth exploring.

Off ball

Going by the evidence in Chelsea’s first 3 PL games, it is abundantly clear that Maresca’s side insist on piercing through the heart of the opposition. Crystal Palace understood that and blocked the middle lanes and ensured 90 minutes of frustration for a solitary point. West Ham tried to do the same, but where Palace presented a metal shield, they offered a cardboard cut-out. Fulham succeeded in the first half by focusing the press centrally, a goal in the dying seconds of the half changed everything. The last two of those games though, Chelsea did have the option of going long to Liam Delap on the flanks, his runs pulling opposition CBs out and stretching the last line. That’s something Chelsea have missed sorely with Jackson being frozen out and will miss even more with Delap’s hamstring injury ruling him out for up to 8 weeks. The Athletic have illustrated this nicely in their piece on why Chelsea want to null and void Nico’s loan.

That is an aspect Garnacho excels at, functioning like a mini-CF on the wings. He consistently looks to shoot across or behind his fullback, and isn’t shy at moving centrally to run off the shoulder to give the 2^nd CB an additional headache. Watch Estevão’s goal against Leverkusen or Neto’s against West Ham – it’s the wingers attacking the far post for scoring opportunities – something Maresca insisted his wingers at Leicester do to up their goal tally. It’s something Garnacho loves doing and he’s very good at. At times he disengages completely and ends up at the center of the box for cutbacks in positions Enzo Fernandez and João Pedro take. Adding a two-footed shooter like Garnacho there could amplify returns from what the right-wing is supplying consistently into the box. Should Chelsea find teams looking to block the middle, long balls in behind the LB/LCB could offer a more direct avenue, in the absence of both Jackson & Delap.

The metrics

The data on Garnacho’s output also offers a goldmine. After losing 2 of their 3 top shooters (assuming Jackson still leaves/is frozen out) last season, adding Garnacho’s 3.5 shots/game will be crucial. Not only does he manage 7-8 touches in the penalty box a game, he also possesses strong shooting with both feet and some neat cutbacks that helped him craft some excellent opportunities that would have pushed him closer to the 10 assists mark. On paper he profiles closer to winger/CF hybrid profile, something Chelsea have in Pedro Neto, who also struggles to make his industry translate to goals. Another Chelsea player offers the ideal comp in Raheem Sterling – a decent dribbler with exceptional quantity/quantity of movement, strong, rapid ball carrying in space and two footed shooting. Sterling worked a treat in Pep’s system, and Maresca will be hoping Garnacho can be what the England winger was to his idol. To get the best out of him, watching how Heung-Min Song was used at his peak at Spurs could be a great reference point for Maresca and Garnacho both.

Or there’s just a far simpler explanation for Chelsea’s purchase. There will not be a better example than yesterday to help illustrate Chelsea’s successful, yet heavily scrutinized, transfer strategy. First there’s Nicolas Jackson. Bought for €35m million from Villarreal, who, by popular consensus, did well yet underperformed on his numbers for a couple of seasons. However, notching double-digit non-penalty goals in both seasons did enough to make Bayern consider shelling 80m on him. Then there’s Garnacho, who by the age of 20 made 93 PL appearances across two-and-a-half seasons and hit a career high 20 G/A last season. Look at the prices less heralded wingers are going for these days – Dango Ouattara scored 9 in 81 games for Bournemouth and Brentford shelled out a club record deal rising to €50m to bring him in. Kudus, with two seasons for West Ham & 13 goals in 65 PL games joined Spurs for €64m. 11 goals in 64 for Elanga at Forest and Newcastle paid €64m for him too. By all means, Garnacho, with similar PL experience and goal returns at a pretty poor side should have gone for equal or more. Chelsea snapped him up for 46m + a 10% sell on – a very strong market opportunity.

Considering the hierarchy’s prowess at flipping undervalued, under-appreciated assets like Renato Veiga in the space of a year, this could just be the SDs realizing that one semi-decent season in a successful Chelsea campaign could boost his price to what United should have sold him for. What Garnacho is very good at is what Noni Madueke is also very good at (minus the movement.) So perhaps there is faith that if Garnacho doesn’t hit spectacular heights in two years, there’s always a buyer like Arsenal to shell out 55m for what pops on the stats sheet. Sometimes, football is just that transactional.

But if Chelsea’s intentions are to truly nurture him into what his potential suggests he can become – then the idea would be to use him as a wide forward rather than a winger. Play him in behind from deep, allow him to drift centrally to find shooting positions. Isolating him wide 1v1 is good, but Enzo/Andrey should look for 1-2s and runs into space. That’s where Garnacho truly comes alive. That is where he may yet prove key in this attack too, providing much needed off-ball industry in a team full of on-ball wizards.