Can Chelsea nullify Man City's lethal left wing in FA Cup final?

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A draw against Liverpool may have stemmed an acrimonious run of form, but Chelsea remain without a win in the league since the 4th of March as they head into the most definitive week of their abysmal season. Positives from the draw at Anfield, and an encouraging first half from an otherwise sobering defeat against Man City at home will give McFarlane plenty to think about as he attempts to bring home Chelsea’s first FA Cup in eight years.

Inverting left-backs and the O’Reilly Problem

After a disciplined first half in which the Blues held City at arm’s length, the 2nd half saw a breakthrough come from City’s best cloaked dagger this season. -Nico O’Reilly, a former Chelsea transfer target, is a midfielder by trade, but Pep Guardiola has used him at left-back when Rodri-Silva have been at full fitness. While competent out wide and providing overlaps, O’Reilly truly comes alive when City’s rotations move him into central positions.

Chasing a goal that would keep them in the title race, O’Reilly quickly began to push into the left-half spaces and the center of the box. Estevao struggled to find a balance between dropping very deep to stay on the City man and to function as Chelsea’s exploit for the space vacated by him.

It eventually arrived when O’Reilly found himself in the box, marked by Chelsea’s +1 in the backline Andrey Santos. A brief tussle later, the 6’4 inch midfielder easily shrug off his Brazilian counterpart and headed in the opener, throwing open the floodgates.

Whether by coincidence or design, Liverpool found joy with the same tweak. This time, it was Palmer on the right-wing, and the Reds’ Milos Kerkez was able to invert behind to take advantage of Chelsea’s right winger joining the first line of press.

It was Palmer and Santos getting their duties muddled up that offered space and time for Liverpool’s Hungarian to gallop towards the box and win a freekick for his fellow countryman. Chelsea conceded Gravenberch’s goal from a sequence stemming seconds after this freekick. McFarlane will have to find an out-of-possession plan that caters for O’Reilly’s movement into central areas without forcing Andrey Santos or Gusto marking him in the box on headers.

The Gamebreaker

Only one player in the Premier League has completed more than 80 dribbles. In fact, he’s the only one also to complete more than 70 too, with the next best, Iliman Ndiaye, on 69. Of the 10 players to complete more than 45 dribbles, Jeremy Doku doesn’t just top the quantity charts with 87, he tops the quality metric too with 57.75% of his take ons.

O’Reilly’s tendency to occupy the half-spaces also has the additional advantage of pulling opposition wingers centrally, allowing Doku to be more isolated against his fullback. McFarlane will have to then decide who should slot into his right winger role, will it be the physically burdened Palmer or the more industrious Neto? And if it is the latter, who will take up the coveted CAM slot - Palmer or Enzo?

Make no mistake about it, Palmer has put in the kind of defensive shifts from out wide that will be a necessity in this game. Any attempt to give him double duty - ie having to join Joao Pedro to press on the centerbacks AND trying to track back to help out his fullback will almost certainly have heavy repercussions on his attacking potency.

Back 5 conundrums

There may be a temptation to frustrate City by collapsing into a back 5 in a low block and ensuring a quickly double up on Doku and keeping compact spaces to prevent Cherki from passing and moving. That hypothesis has been tried, but has more often than not, failed.

In the 21 matches this season in which City have played against a back 3 or back 5, City have won 16 and lost just the one. There is potency in central zones and out wide, and outlasting their relentless pressure over 90 minutes takes the kind of concentration and industry Chelsea could only sustain for one half.

Will the plan be to use the returning Levi Colwill to pierce through City’s press? Or will it be an attempt to re-emulate the 45’ that neutralized City for half the game? The wrong call will lead to the kind of heartache this Chelsea side have grown too comfortable living with in recent times. The right one will change how a very long season and an equally long summer feels.

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