Joao Pedro: Chelsea forward's slump a cause for alarm?

Seconds after his glorious chip over Gianluigi Donnarumma sent Chelsea fans into rapturous delirium, Joao Pedro pulled out an invisible crown and placed it over Cole Palmer’s head. It was a testament to his impact in the summer that had the gesture been the other way around, no one would have blinked an eye.

The Brazilian cut short a post-season break, airdropped himself straight into the Club World Cup, bagged a brace in under an hour to dispatch Fluminense before capping a scarcely believable result against the European Champions.

The first two games of the season offered a near perfect glimpse into the challenges he and his manager would face. Starting up top against Crystal Palace’s back 3, the 24-year-old Brazilian struggled, every touch hounded by the diligent Maxence Lacroix, space and time evaporating like a mirage as soon as tried to reach for it.

Maresca reacted quickly. Against a flailing West Ham, he played behind Liam Delap in his favoured role in the hole and dismantled the Hammers with 3 G/A. His prowess as an aerial battering ram saw him score one and set up the other, and his ability to arrive in the space behind the CF left little doubt in Maresca’s mind as to his ideal position.

Fulham saw the same set up start the game, but Delap’s injury and Jackson’s Bayern push left Maresca short of options up front. It went from bad to worse when Joao travelled to the notorious El Alto stadium in Bolivia, after which altitude sickness and travel left him looking every bit like someone who had been denied proper rest & recuperation between seasons.

In the 18 appearances for club and country since Fulham, Joao Pedro has scored two and assisted one. 15 of those appearances have been for Chelsea, in which he’s mustered a dismal 13 shots, five of them came in one game vs Spurs. In games against back 3/back 5 defences, he has taken 3 shots twice, against basement dwellers Wolves and West Ham. In the 6 other games he’s yet to have more than a single shot.

This is not something the club were unaware of when purchasing the Brazilian forward. In the six league seasons in which he has played more than 15 games, on only one occasion has he managed more than 3 shots a game – in his first season at Brighton. This season, he is averaging his worst tally in his senior career, an alarming 1.75 shots/game. To put that into context, the CFs of 18 other PL teams are managing more; only Wolves’ Jorgen Strand-Larsen has managed fewer. At 60^th in the PL for shots/90, he sits 4 places above Arsenal’s FB Riccardo Calafiori. Nicolas Jackson was managing 3.08 last season. That may not seem like much improvement over 1.75, but over the course of 38 games, that’s 50 shots fewer for the Brazilian.

Granted, there may be wisdom in the words of under-fire manager Arne Slot that there are more low blocks in the PL now than in recent memory. 8 out of the 15 sides Chelsea have faced in the PL have lined up with a back 5 – Joao Pedro has had to play as the lone 9 in most of them. It is no surprise that he is managing his fewest touches inside the penalty box in 5 seasons in the PL.

Chelsea as a unit have had to adapt to a different kind of CF as well, bringing its own disconnect to JP. Nicolas Jackson was top of the league for runs in behind, while Joao Pedro ranks way lower for the metric, preferring to receive while dropping. Joao Pedro has had to adapt to run in behind and with his lack of speed and raw relationship with teammates. He has been caught offside four times as much as last season despite playing fewer minutes.

The major problem for Chelsea is that his form is no longer down to tactical responsibilities. Even after Delap’s return, the lethargic, arduous performances have continued, even in his preferred role. There is a distinct lack of speed, power and purpose to his forward play off the ball. Against Bournemouth, just like against multiple opponents this season, he dawdled and ambled across the pitch despite coming on as a sub. It was the 4th time in 15 appearances that he failed to register a single shot. Nicolas Jackson blanked twice in 34 games last season, only one if you consider that his second blank was in the Newcastle game where he was sent off after 35 minutes.

Chelsea’s hierarchy are not known for patience, so it is simultaneously still early days for Joao Pedro but time is also running out. Just ask Joao Felix, who was swiftly offloaded after a disappointing season with little regards to the eye-watering price tag. Emmanuel Emegha arrives in the summer to compete for the 9 slot, while Palmer & Estevao, who the club wants to mould into a 10 long term, offer significant threats to his position. There will not be a better chance for Joao Pedro to feature in a Brazilian XI at the WC either with his competition currently Vitor Roque, Forest’s Igor Jesus, Spurs’ Richarlison and United’s injury-plagued Matheus Cunha.

Maresca benching him vs Bournemouth & sending Marc Guiu on before him for Delap was the Italian asking him two crucial questions. If you’re not in my strongest Chelsea XI, what are you going to do about it? And why will Ancelotti take you to Brazil if you’re the only one of his CF options warming the bench? With a little less than 2/3rds of the season still remaining, there is still enough time for Joao Pedro to deliver the right answers.