London is Blue Dispatch #077

As the final whistle cut through the winter air at Selhurst Park to ensure the points were split, Maxence Lacroix and Marc Guehi both went down on their knees. It was not in exhaustion or in relief at having escaped with a point; it seemed more out of dejection for not delivering all three. On the basis of the 2^nd half display Palace had every right to feel that way, having outshot, outdueled, outmuscled their more illustrious neighbours. In the post-game presser Enzo Maresca claimed the Blues had dominated the game; one shot on target over 90 minutes tells an entirely different tale.

There is no denying that Chelsea have hit the crisis point that everyone, including Maresca, expected them to hit somewhere during the season. For all of the criticism of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign, his younger, less-experienced Chelsea side never went on a winless streak for four games. More worryingly, after the first ten games of bedding in with a completely new squad, they never endured a 3-game sequence without two goals or more across all competitions. The draw against Palace made it just two goals in a four-game sequence.

The defence meanwhile, missing half of its regular starters in Wes Fofana and Reece James, has endured familiar woes from last season. Palace’s equalizer made it 7 goals conceded after the 75^th minute mark, the most the club has conceded in any 15-minute window this season, repeating last campaign’s feat of conceding a season-high 18 after the 75’ mark. 5 of these 7 goals have been conceded in this four-game run. Palmer’s giveaway made it 7 errors leading to goals this season; Chelsea made 6 errors leading to goals in the whole of last season.

Conditioning and Game Management

So what exactly is at the root of this bizarre lull? Maresca and his game management have come under an increasing amount of scrutiny, mostly for a lack of substitutions during the year’s most hectic run of fixtures. In this winless four-game run, Maresca has made 9 subs from a possible 24 – only 3 of those subs were made before the 75^th minute mark and only one before the hour mark. Maresca and Pochettino are very similar in terms of using their substitutions – Poch was 15^th last season for total subs made (19 mins for each sub) while Maresca is 16^th (17 mins per sub made.) Maresca’s subs have netted him 7 G/A this season, less than half of the league leaders Bournemouth (16), while Poch’s changes yielded 12 G/A, half of that of 23/24 leaders Liverpool (24). It is important to note that the volume of subs generally (and obviously) has little correlation to league position – of the top 5 teams to make the most subs in the PL this and last season, only one of them were/are in the top 6 on the points table. Quality, rather than quantity, dictates how effective the changes are.

Which is where the bench poses its issues. Noni Madueke has 2 goals & 3 assists in the 1,030 minutes since his hattrick against Wolves. Pedro Neto has a goal and two assists in 1,002 minutes. Neither of Chelsea’s right wingers seem particularly keen on making that spot their own. Nkunku, with 13 goals across all competitions, has been given 64, 18, 16, 8 and 15 minutes in the PL in his last five appearances. Is Nkunku disenchanted by the frugal game time or is the miserly game time afforded to him by Maresca because of his lackadaisical displays? One can argue fairly for either, but there is no question that it is hurting the team.

With the Jan window open, the hierarchy as a whole will have to reflect on the larger picture with regards to dubious squad planning – €132m worth of summer signings have played a collective 806 minutes in the Premier League, while €172.4m worth of new attackers and midfielders have provided 4 goals and 7 assists in 2,284 minutes. Sam Rak-Sakyi, Josh Acheampong, Tyrique George, Marc Guiu and the rest of the Cobham + U19 players looked as competent as a wildly expensive rotation squad in the Conference League.

The #8 profiles in the squad (Casadei, Chukwuemeka, KDH) have either been frozen out or relegated to token appearances, which is concerning considering how important they proved to Maresca’s success at Leicester. What the squad seems to lack are the exact game-changing profiles that the club missed out in the summer – a John Duran, a Samu, a Michael Olise. It could be a long time between now and when Estêvão and Andrey Santos arrive in the summer.

Maresca must also shoulder a lot of the blame for this blip. While his bench may provide little incentive to make changes, he need to find an answer to the same questions his predecessor failed to answer – why does this team go to sleep in the last 15 minutes of games? How good is this attack really against low blocks? Nkunku is yet to feature in his favoured role behind the CF in a PL game, he could prove key at a time when Jackson, Madueke and Neto are failing to provide the right amount of impetus. Morecambe next provides a good opportunity to raise a few spirits before the Cherries, unbeaten in 8, look to turn Maresca’s challenge into a full-blown crisis.