London is Blue Dispatch #094

When the ball exploded off Bruno Guimarães’ laces, the xG value assigned to the shot said it had a 1% chance of finding the net. Had Malo Gusto’s toe not given it the vital nudge, Robert Sanchez’s glove would have palmed it aside. The difference between a 1-0 defeat and a 2-0 defeat at that point felt seismic – Newcastle had found daylight with 3 points, managing a 4 GD swing over us in a single game. Forest could now steal the final CL spot, with Villa level on points and with a terrific run of form to propel them on. In the end, the shot with a 1% chance of going in turned a valiant, resilient effort into a deflating defeat, only reiterating that football is seen with prescription glasses – the slightest shifts sometimes blurring reality.

It took Sandro Tonali a little less than 120 seconds to rip up Enzo Maresca’s blueprint. The Italian’s insistence on playing his player-of-the-season from midfield, and arguably the best defensive midfielder in the world at inverted rightback to accommodate Romeo Lavia paid off against Liverpool’s second-choice midfield. Here though, a quick ball targeted the rapid Anthony Gordon against Caicedo out wide 1v1, leading to a near penalty; Lavia was then robbed off the ball at the edge of his own box, leading to one Italian hurting another.

As has often been the case for Chelsea after going one up or one down, there were signs of headloss. In their last two meetings, Nicolas Jackson had turned Dan Burn to toast with his speed across the ground. Between the Tonali goal and his utterly foolish act of self-sabotage, Jackson only received multiple aerial balls to fight for against a 6’7 behemoth. Newcastle’s backline have also been very efficient at set-pieces and defending aerial deliveries, but for some reason, even with 10 men and no CF, the Blues launched 14 crosses until the 88^th minute, and only one found its target. These failings are not new.

At half-time, Maresca knew the weight of the entire season rested upon the decision he would have to make. The easier option was to rectify what had been found out – Caicedo given the responsibility of screening his defence and Lavia taken off for Malo Gusto or Reece James. That move would have allowed him to strengthen out-of-possession, while keeping the transition threat from Pedro Neto and Noni Madueke.

Instead, Maresca sprang a surprise. Off came Madueke, Caicedo moved to midfield but next to Lavia. Enzo was moved to left wing. After managing just 43% of the ball with his 3 CMs on the pitch, this felt like a tactical mistake. But Maresca did what his supporters laud him for and his critics give him grief for – he stuck to his guns. And against sound footballing logic, it worked.

With a man less, Chelsea managed nearly twice the passes (311) than Newcastle (158.) Chelsea dominated Newcastle on the ground, winning more than twice the ground duels (26 to their 12) and winning thrice as many aerials (9 to 3.) This was not Newcastle surrendering the initiative like Ipswich did in those now vital five dropped points. This was Chelsea grabbing it with both hands.

By preserving his triple midfield despite being a man short, Maresca’s obsession for control finally began to make sense. Enzo drifting inside from left wing also opened up the channel for Marc Cucurella’s dangerous surges forward. Both would take dangerous shots from identical positions inside the box, potential equalizers had Nick Pope not pulled two superb saves. When Guimarães & Enzo decided to depict Brazil & Argentina’s eternal grapple for national pride, VAR decided not to intervene.

A 1-0 defeat would have been acceptable with a man down for an hour, but Maresca showed something tactically and mentally he hasn’t before. He abandoned structure and pragmatism and went for the jugular. A 3-3-3 against a Newcastle side with dangerous wingers was tactical hara-kiri. He turned his FBs into wide CBs, leaving just one centerback in the backline. He brought on a winger for a centerback and gave Reece the license to push up. His header, with an 11% probability of ending up in the net, could have been the first equalizer to complete a turnaround. All of this achieved with a man disadvantage, against a top PL team, was wiped out by a shot with a 1% chance of going in.

While results are correctly the only thing that matter at this stage of the season, the 2^nd half did show a stubborn perseverance from both Maresca and his young side. It is difficult to produce such a performance without the manager’s unwavering faith in his ideas and the XI’s buy-in into that collective vision; just watch Cole Palmer tracking back 70 yards on a Newcastle break despite knowing he was expected to run twice as hard the other way. Leicester, with nothing left to play for, holding Forest to a draw was a gift from Maresca’s former side to him. And the defeat could be a gift in disguise too, teaching him more about his side’s resolve than a win against the Champions’ rotated side did last week.