Rosenior & Chelsea planning a tactical surprise vs PSG?

Was Liam Rosenior’s “we do too” limited to just the world-class players? Or did it also extend to the world-class manager bit too?

At the press conference for the Club World Cup final last summer, a journalist asked Enzo Maresca if his side were ready to suffer for long spells without the ball against PSG.

In an instant, Maresca’s eyebrows furrowed, creases tainting his forehead, before he fired back - “says who?”

Maresca’s gesture was interpreted by many as hubris. This was, after all, not a Europa Conference League opponent. PSG were crowned CL champions after a 5-0 dismantling of a European giant, almost never witnessed in a European final. They were fresh off a 4-0 thrashing of knockout kings Real Madrid. Chelsea’s run to the final resembled a Copa Libertadores campaign against Flamengo, Fluminense, Palmeiras and LAFC.

Rosenior’s confidence here might be interpreted as something similar too. He has, however, played three matches against them with the youngest squad in Europe’s top 5 leagues. He has lost only one. If Chelsea have learnt anything from their previous meeting with PSG, it is that confidence, even if misplaced, makes all a significant difference.

Tactical Surprise

Was the end of the Wrexham game a subtle rehearsal for the big clash? Eyebrows were raised when Chelsea started with 3 CBs against Wrexham, but perhaps the answer to the “why” may have been in how they finished.

At Strasbourg, Rosenior deployed a 3-4-2-1 against PSG in all three games, opting for a 5-2-3/5-3-2 to nullify the space for PSG’s dangerous rotations in the final 3rd. PSG have faced a back 3/5 this season 13 times. They have failed to win 6 of them.

Chelsea ended the Wrexham game with Cucurella at LWB and Gusto at RWB. Garnacho and Andrey both played the full 120, which points to Rosenior going for a midfield two and two attackers. Adding Reece (if fit) to RCB with Fofana and Chalobah, a pivot of Enzo-Caicedo with protection from 3 CBs, and Palmer-Neto behind Joao Pedro could be in play to help Rosenior re-emulate his strategy - press PSG high, win loose balls and target direct attacks/fast breaks to disorient a vulnerable central element of the defence.

Save Your Breath

Maresca arrived at the CWC final with 62 Chelsea games under his belt. More importantly, he arrived in sweltering conditions in the US with a squad he was able to rotate freely during a UECL campaign.

PSG’s XI had seven outfielders who had played 45 games or more in the past season. Chelsea had just the one. The effectiveness of a strategy asking Sanchez to go long and target PSG’s left was undeniably enhanced by the Parisians’ accumulated fatigue, of Kvaratskhelia repeatedly failing to track Gusto and Palmer’s 2v1s on Mendes.

The conditioning advantage could swing either way this time around. Chelsea have 8 outfielders with 35 or more games this season, PSG have only four. However, only two players on either side have crossed 3000 minutes. Both sides are clearly feeling the crunch of extended European campaigns - PSG, for instance, have lost twice as many league games already (4) as the entirety of last season.

PSG’s individuals seem to be reeling too. Build up sequences have fallen apart quite frequently, and Monaco, in their triple header this past month, showed that PSG’s midfield can be hassled, robbed and outrun. The big question, as always with Chelsea, is if they’ll hurl the axe or drop it on their own toes.

With Ligue 1 moving a league fixture to afford the reigning champions extra breathing room before the 2nd leg, this tie will prove all the more crucial. It is 7,847 days since Chelsea last won in Paris. Their best hopes of winning a two-legged tie will involve ending that near 22-year-old record.